# 模擬交易

> 模擬交易係指用虛擬資金而唔係真實資金，喺即時行情數據上運行一套策略。同回測唔同，佢係向前推進嘅，跑喺策略從未見過嘅數據上，因此排除咗「對住已知結果去擬合」嘅可能。同實盤唔同，佢唔投入任何真實資金——而呢個既係佢嘅目的，亦係佢最核心嘅局限。

Canonical HTML page: https://qanterion.com/zh-HK/glossary/paper-trading
更新於: 2026-08-18
又稱: 模擬盤, 示範交易, 前向測試

## 計算方式

```
Backtest  → past data, instant, cheapest to run, easiest to fool yourself with
Paper     → live data, real time, no capital at risk, no execution risk either
Live      → live data, real capital, real fills, real behaviour

Paper trading tests the strategy. Only live trading tests the operator.
```

## 佢補返回測補唔到嘅「未來函數」缺口

回測可以被有意無意咁對住一份結果已知嘅數據去調參，模擬交易唔得：下一個 tick 仲未發生。等策略喺即時數據上向前跑足夠長嘅一段時間，係證明「佢嘅優勢存在於建構佢嗰份樣本之外」嘅最平證據。

## 佢依然測唔到咩

模擬成交唔使同人爭流動性，所以滑點同部分成交係被建模出嚟嘅，而唔係被真實經歷嘅。更重要嘅係，冇任何模擬可以複現一個人眼白白望住真錢縮水時嘅行為。模擬交易驗證嘅係策略；只有真實資金先可以驗證操作呢套策略嗰個人。

## 常見誤讀

模擬盤持續賺錢經常被當作「策略可以上實盤」嘅證明。佢能夠證明嘅係：喺建模出嚟嘅成交條件下，呢套規則產生嘅訊號具備優勢——而唔係呢啲成交喺真實規模下攞得到，亦唔係呢個人可以喺第一段真實回撤裡面堅持執行規則。

## 親手計一計

- 倉位規模計算機: https://qanterion.com/zh-HK/tools/position-size-calculator
- 強平價格計算機: https://qanterion.com/zh-HK/tools/liquidation-price-calculator

## 相關詞條

- 回測: https://qanterion.com/zh-HK/glossary/backtesting
- 過度擬合: https://qanterion.com/zh-HK/glossary/overfitting
- 滑點: https://qanterion.com/zh-HK/glossary/slippage

## 參考資料

- [Interpretive Notice 9025 — Compliance Rule 2-29: Use of Promotional Material Containing Hypothetical Performance Results](https://www.nfa.futures.org/rulebooksql/rules.aspx?RuleID=9025&Section=9) — National Futures Association
- [Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?](https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trading%20and%20Learning%20110217.pdf) — Barber, Lee, Liu, Odean & Zhang, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
- [Price Impact](https://arxiv.org/abs/0903.2428) — J.-P. Bouchaud, arXiv (entry for the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Finance)

## Other languages

- English: https://qanterion.com/glossary/paper-trading
- 简体中文: https://qanterion.com/zh/glossary/paper-trading
- 繁體中文（台灣）: https://qanterion.com/zh-TW/glossary/paper-trading
- 日本語: https://qanterion.com/ja/glossary/paper-trading
- 한국어: https://qanterion.com/ko/glossary/paper-trading
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- Türkçe: https://qanterion.com/tr/glossary/paper-trading
- Bahasa Indonesia: https://qanterion.com/id/glossary/paper-trading
- العربية: https://qanterion.com/ar/glossary/paper-trading

## Risk notice

本術語表用於教學。此處內容不構成投資建議，頁面所述任何指標都無法預測未來結果。